伊朗新最高領袖始終未露面，這可能反而有助於政權生存
Iran’s new supreme leader is nowhere to be seen. That might be helping the regime to survive
在其父親遭刺殺並被宣布為新任最高領袖的六個多星期後，伊朗人民至今依然沒有見到或聽到莫傑塔巴·哈米尼（Mojtaba Khamenei）的身影。
More than six weeks after he was announced as their new supreme leader following the assassination of his father, Iranians have still not seen or heard Mojtaba Khamenei.
在這場被視為對統治該國近半個世紀政權構成生存威脅的衝突中，哈米尼的缺席顯得極其反常。取而代之的是，歸屬於這位 56 歲神職人員的聲明在國營電視台上被宣讀，或在社群媒體上發佈。該政權甚至使用 AI 生成的影片來展示哈米尼傳達訊息，這進一步引發了外界對於這位新最高領袖已喪失行動能力或流亡國外的猜測。
In the midst of a conflict seen as posing an existential threat to the regime that has ruled their country for nearly half a century, Khamenei has been conspicuously absent. Instead, statements attributed to the 56-year-old cleric have been read out on national television or posted on social media. The regime has even used AI-generated videos to show Khamenei delivering messages, fueling speculation that the new supreme leader is incapacitated or abroad.
這與他的父親、已故的阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈米尼（Ayatollah Ali Khamenei）形成了鮮明對比。阿里·哈米尼在過去幾十年來一直是伊朗決策層中曝光率極高的面孔。在他的領導下，幾乎每週都會發表講話、裁決，或進行精心策劃的干預。
It’s in stark contrast to his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was for decades the highly visible face of Iranian decision-making. Under him, not a week passed without a speech, a ruling, a carefully timed intervention.
據消息人士上個月向 CNN 透露，哈米尼在導致其父親及伊朗軍方高層指揮官喪生的一波空襲中，也遭受了腳部骨折、左眼瘀青以及臉部輕微割傷。
A source told CNN last month that Khamenei had suffered a fractured foot, a bruised left eye and minor lacerations to his face in the same wave of strikes that killed his father and Iran’s top military commanders.
國際危機組織（International Crisis Group）伊朗項目主任阿里·瓦埃茲（Ali Vaez）表示，目前看起來「莫傑塔巴目前的狀態可能無法做出關鍵決策或親自指導談判細節」，但「體制正利用他來為關鍵的大方向決策背書，而非介入具體的談判戰術」。
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, says it appears that “Mojtaba is not in a state where he can actually make critical decisions or micromanage the talks,” but that “the system is using him to get final approval for key broad decisions and not (for) the tactics for the negotiations.”
在經歷美以兩國對伊朗政軍高層的清洗後，該政權推舉出了一位倖存者來展現團結。長年擔任議長的穆罕默德·巴格爾·卡利巴夫（Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf），日前率領代表團在伊斯蘭馬巴德與美國進行第一輪談判，現在被視為代表伊朗伊斯蘭共和國的核心人物之一。
The regime has elevated one survivor after the US-Israeli purge of Iran’s political and military leadership to embody unity. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the country’s long-serving parliament speaker, has led the first round of negotiations with the US in Islamabad and is now viewed as one of the main figures representing the Islamic Republic.
目前，這位於慣於隱身幕後的伊朗新最高領袖，正發揮著對國家老牌政治家們極具價值的功用。「將決策歸於他名下——即便他未必完全同意——是伊朗談判代表抵擋批評的極佳掩護，」瓦埃茲說道。「因為一個行蹤成謎的人是不會站出來反駁任何事的。」
For now, Iran’s new supreme leader, a man used to operating from the shadows, is serving a useful purpose for the country’s veteran politicians. “Attributing views to him even if he doesn’t necessarily agree with them is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to protect themselves against criticism,” Vaez said. “There’s no countering from a man who is missing in action.”